Depuis un an, le régime de Vladimir Poutine tue des Ukrainiennes et des Ukrainiens, envoie des centaines de milliers de Russes à la mort et menace le monde de l’arme nucléaire au nom de l’objectif fou de restaurer son empire. Pour nous, femmes et hommes russes qui nous opposons à l’agression et à la dictature de Poutine, cette année a été une année d’horreur et de honte face aux crimes de guerre commis quotidiennement en notre nom.
À l’occasion du premier anniversaire de cette guerre, nous appelons toutes celles et ceux qui aspirent à la paix à participer aux manifestations et aux rassemblements contre l’invasion de Poutine. Malheureusement, tous les rassemblements « pour la paix » qui auront lieu le week-end prochain ne seront pas des actions de solidarité avec l’Ukraine. Une grande partie de la gauche en Occident ne comprend pas la nature de cette guerre et prône le compromis avec le poutinisme. Nous avons rédigé cette déclaration pour aider nos camarades d’autres pays à comprendre la situation et à adopter la bonne position.
Une guerre contre-révolutionnaire
Certains auteurs occidentaux attribuent la guerre à des causes telles que l’effondrement de l’URSS, « l’histoire contradictoire de la création de la nation ukrainienne » et la confrontation géopolitique entre puissances nucléaires. Sans nier l’importance de ces facteurs, nous sommes surpris de ne pas y trouver la raison la plus importante et la plus évidente de ce qui se passe : la volonté du régime de Poutine de supprimer les mouvements de protestation démocratique dans toute l’ancienne Union soviétique et en Russie même.
La réoccupation de la Crimée en 2014 et le déclenchement des hostilités dans le Donbass étaient une réponse du Kremlin à la « révolution de la dignité » en Ukraine, qui a renversé le gouvernement pro-russe corrompu de Viktor Ianoukovitch, ainsi qu’aux manifestations de masse des Russes pour des élections équitables en 2011-12 (connues sous le nom de manifestations de la place Bolotnaya). L’annexion de la péninsule de Crimée a été une victoire de politique intérieure pour Poutine. Il a utilisé avec succès la rhétorique revancharde, anti-occidentale et traditionaliste (ainsi que la persécution politique) pour élargir sa base sociale, isoler l’opposition et effrayer la population avec les conséquences des « Maïdans ».
Mais le regain de popularité qui a suivi l’annexion a été de courte durée. La fin des années 2010 a été marquée par la stagnation économique, une réforme impopulaire des retraites et des révélations anticorruption très médiatisées par l’équipe d’Alexei Navalny qui ont fait s’effondrer la cote de Poutine, notamment auprès des jeunes. Des manifestations ont balayé le pays, et le parti au pouvoir, Russie Unie, a subi une série de lourdes défaites aux élections régionales. Dans ce contexte, le Kremlin a misé sur la conservation du régime. Le plébiscite constitutionnel de 2020 (qui a nécessité un trucage sans précédent, même selon les normes russes) a fait de Poutine un dirigeant à vie. Sous le prétexte de contenir la pandémie de Covid-19, les rassemblements de protestation ont été définitivement interdits. Une tentative d’empoisonnement du chef de l’opposition extraparlementaire Alexei Navalny a eu lieu, à laquelle il a miraculeusement survécu.
Le soulèvement populaire de l’été 2020 en Biélorussie a confirmé la conviction de l’élite russe que « l’Occident collectif » mène une « guerre hybride » contre la Russie, l’attaquant, elle et ses satellites, par des « révolutions de couleur ». Bien sûr, de telles affirmations ne sont rien d’autre qu’une théorie du complot. Le mécontentement social et politique en Russie s’est accru en raison des inégalités sociales records, de la pauvreté, de la corruption, des reculs des libertés civiles et de l’évidente absence de perspectives du modèle russe de capitalisme, fondé sur l’appropriation des « rentes naturelles » par une couche parasitaire de l’oligarchie des matières premières. S’il y a une chose que nous pouvons reprocher à « l’Occident collectif », c’est sa complaisance de longue date envers le poutinisme, y compris sur la question ukrainienne. Pendant des décennies, la politique du business as usual a dominé les relations des élites européennes et américaines avec la Russie de Poutine, ce qui a permis à la dictature de prospérer, de réaliser des superprofits et de se sentir en totale impunité sur la scène mondiale.
Les concessions à Poutine ne mèneront pas à la paix
L’invasion de l’Ukraine était une tentative de Poutine de répéter son triomphe de 2014 en Crimée – en s’assurant une victoire rapide, en ralliant la société russe autour du drapeau avec des slogans revanchards, en écrasant définitivement l’opposition et en établissant son hégémonie dans l’espace post-soviétique (que l’impérialisme de Poutine considère comme faisant partie de la « Russie historique »).
La résistance héroïque des Ukrainiens a contrecarré ces plans, transformant la « petite guerre victorieuse » dont rêvait le Kremlin en un conflit prolongé qui a épuisé l’économie russe et brisé le mythe de l’invincibilité de son armée. Acculé, Moscou menace le monde avec ses armes nucléaires tout en exhortant l’Ukraine et l’Occident à négocier. À l’unisson de cette rhétorique, on entend les voix de ceux qui, dans la gauche européenne et étatsunienne, s’opposent aux livraisons d’armes à l’Ukraine (pour « sauver des vies » et empêcher une apocalypse nucléaire). En même temps – puisque la Russie n’est pas prête à se retirer des territoires occupés, ce qui est une condition impérative pour Kiev (et la position de 93 % des Ukrainiens) – on sous-entend que l’Ukraine doit sacrifier sa souveraineté afin « d’apaiser l’agresseur ». Une politique qui a de sinistres précédents dans l’histoire européenne !
Sauver des vies ?
Est-il donc vrai que la défaite de l’Ukraine (inévitable si l’aide occidentale est réduite) permettra d’éviter davantage de victimes ? Même si nous acceptons la logique non évidente du point de vue socialiste selon laquelle « sauver des vies » est plus important que de combattre la tyrannie et l’agression, nous pensons que ce n’est pas le cas. Il est notoire que Vladimir Poutine revendique l’ensemble du territoire de l’Ukraine, affirmant que les Ukrainiens et les Russes sont « une seule nation » et que l’existence d’un État ukrainien est une erreur de l’histoire. Un cessez-le-feu ne ferait que donner au Kremlin le temps de reconstituer sa capacité militaire en vue d’un nouvel assaut. Il s’agirait notamment d’augmenter la taille de l’armée en y enrôlant de force des Russes (pour la plupart issus des minorités ethniques et des plus pauvres).
Si l’Ukraine continue à résister à l’invasion sans approvisionnement en armes, cela entraînera d’innombrables pertes parmi les soldats et les civils ukrainien. Et la terreur, dont nous avons vu les horribles résultats à Boutcha et ailleurs, est ce qui attend tous les territoires qui seraient accaparés par la Russie.
L’impérialisme multipolaire
Lorsque Poutine parle de se débarrasser de l’hégémonie américaine dans le monde et même d’« anticolonialisme » (!), il ne fait pas référence à la création d’un ordre mondial plus égalitaire. Le « monde multipolaire » de Poutine est un monde où la démocratie et les droits humains ne sont plus considérés comme des valeurs universelles, et où les dites « grandes puissances » ont le champ libre dans leurs sphères d’influence géopolitiques respectives. Cela signifie essentiellement le rétablissement du système de relations internationales qui existait à l’aube des deux guerres mondiales. Ce « brave vieux monde » serait un endroit merveilleux pour les dictateurs, les corrupteurs et l’extrême droite. Mais ce serait l’enfer pour les travailleurs, les minorités ethniques, les femmes, les LGBT, les petites nations et les mouvements de libération. Une victoire de Poutine en Ukraine ne rétablirait pas le statu quo d’avant-guerre, elle créerait un précédent mortel légitimant ainsi « le droit des grandes puissances » de mener des guerres d’agression et de pratiquer le chantage nucléaire. Ce serait le prologue de nouvelles catastrophes militaires et politiques.
À quoi conduirait une victoire du poutinisme dans la guerre en Ukraine ?
Une victoire de Poutine signifierait non seulement la soumission de l’Ukraine, mais aussi la soumission de tous les pays post-soviétiques aux diktats du Kremlin. En Russie, une victoire du régime préserverait un système défini par la domination de l’oligarchie du pouvoir et des combustibles fossiles sur les autres classes sociales (et surtout sur la classe ouvrière) et le pillage des ressources naturelles au détriment du développement technologique et social.
En revanche, la défaite du poutinisme en Ukraine donnerait probablement un élan aux mouvements pour le changement démocratique en Biélorussie, au Kazakhstan et dans d’autres anciens pays soviétiques, ainsi qu’en Russie même. Il serait trop optimiste de prétendre que la défaite à la guerre mène automatiquement à la révolution. Mais l’histoire de la Russie regorge d’exemples de revers militaires à l’étranger qui ont conduit à des changements majeurs dans le pays – dont l’abolition du servage, les révolutions de 1905 et 1917, et la Perestroïka dans les années 1980.
Les socialistes russes ne veulent pas une « victoire » de Poutine et de ses copains oligarques. Nous appelons tous ceux qui souhaitent réellement la paix et qui croient encore au dialogue avec le gouvernement russe à exiger qu’il retire ses troupes des territoires ukrainiens. Tout appel à la paix qui n’inclut pas cette exigence est fallacieux.
• Non à la guerre ! Soyez solidaires contre l’invasion de l’Ukraine par Poutine !
• Mettez fin à l’enrôlement ! Les Russes ne sont pas de la chair à canon !
• Libérez les prisonniers politiques russes !
• La Russie doit être libre !
Mouvement socialiste de Russie (branche émigration)
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