Lundi soir ,dans la nuit, Macron, rendant compte d’une réunion qu’il avait organisé avec une vingtaine de chefs d’États et de gouvernements, a radicalement changé de discours envers la Russie « qu’il ne fallait pas humilier ».
Défaite de la Russie alors qu’il fallait qu’elle ne gagne pas.
Pas en guerre contre le peuple russe donc en guerre contre Poutine.
Envisager l’envoi de troupes sur le terrain.
Passage rapide à l’économie de guerre.
Sur l’envoi possible de troupes sur place, annonce sans précisions, les plus importantes chancelleries européennes ont fait connaître immédiatement leurs désaccords.
Ce qui laisserait à penser que Macron comme souvent a décidé tout seul. L’émoi provoqué par ces annonces dans les États-majors français peut en témoigner.
Cette fuite en avant dans le discours chercherait-elle à cacher que la France est un des plus faibles contributeurs à l’aide à l’Ukraine et à sous-estimer la faiblesse de l’armée française en armements et en effectifs.
Ce discours qui ne repose sur aucun accord préalable ni sur aucune étude de faisabilité montre surtout l’irresponsabilité de ce président.
Sur le plan économique, le passage à une économie de guerre nécessite des réformes profondes et un consensus politique a minima. Or, si les carnets de commandes de certaines industries sont pleins, il n’est nullement prévu à ce stade d’ouvrir de nouvelles lignes de production. Il est encore moins prévu de réorienter certaines industries vers l’armement. Il n’y a ni contrôle ni de planification en vue voire nationalisation temporaire de ce secteur. Éléments capitaux pour aller vers une économie de guerre.
Si un accord existe entre producteurs européens pour accélérer la production d’armes et de munitions c’est avant tout pour rééquiper les armées européennes, l’aide à l’Ukraine apparaissant comme un « effet d’ aubaine ». Il faut aussi voir que l’augmentation de la production d’armes et donc la croissance des exportations vers des pays financièrement solides est importante au moment où l’économie stagne.
Macron aux prises avec de multiples crises intérieures comme la crise agricole nous parlait de « réarmement », aujourd’hui il parle de guerre. C’est un Macron isolé qui envisage un débat avec vote sur l’accord bilatéral avec l’Ukraine dans un parlement où les partis dominants sont favorables à la Russie sous couvert de pacifisme chauvin.
Pourtant l’Ukraine est dans une situation difficile, difficile sur le plan militaire du fait du retard dans la livraison des munitions et difficile sur le plan politique et sociale en raison des multiples réformes néolibérales. C’est dans ces moments que le pouvoir devrait s’appuyer sur le peuple en développant les solidarités et les socialisations. Au contraire, ce sont les plans néolibéraux qui sont mis en œuvre plaçant l’Ukraine sous l’entière dépendance de l’Europe et des Etats-Unis. Et comme l’a rappelé Macron dans son discours, le retour de Trump changera la donne entièrement. L’Ukraine dépend totalement de l’aide des gouvernants occidentaux aux prises avec leurs propres crises . Elle est sous la menace de changements politiques qui renverseraient les alliances.
Comme souvent la parole, le verbe sert de masque à la réalité. Parfois l’illusion fonctionne mais là le danger est trop grand de voir l’Ukraine asphyxiée.
Dans toute l’Europe des manifestations très importantes d’Ukrainien/nes essentiellement ont montrées la volonté populaire de sauver la nation ukrainienne. Le combat politique à leur côté doit mettre en lumière les résistances et les besoins du peuple dans sa lutte pour son indépendance.
La lutte politique doit être au niveau du courage des ukrainiens et doit affronter ceux qui jouent avec la vie et l’indépendance d’un peuple pour satisfaire leurs visées géopoliticiennes.
PS. Moins de vingt-quatre heures après les propos de Macron, le secrétariat de l’OTAN et la Maison Blanche déclarent qu’ils n’enverront pas de soldats sur le sol ukrainien.
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